Inside Early BFCM Discount Trends: A Category-by-Category Breakdown

As Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) approach, brands are refining discount strategies for the holiday rush. This report examines recent discounting trends in Apparel & Accessories, Beauty, and Home & Garden, revealing each category’s approach to balancing consumer demand with strategic pricing.

From high volatility in apparel to steady discounts in beauty and home goods, we explore average discount rates, spread, and volatility, offering insights into trends likely to shape holiday promotions.

Apparel Discounts: Early Volatility Points to Strategic Flexibility

• Average Discount: 30%
• Average Spread (25th - 75th percentile): 23%
• Volatility: High

The Apparel & Accessories category shows consistently high discount levels, with an average discount of 30%. The 25th percentile discount hovers around 20%, while the 75th percentile approaches 45–50%, indicating a substantial spread. This high volatility might suggest an adaptive approach to discounting, where brands are responding dynamically to early shopping behaviors or shifting demand signals in the lead-up to BFCM.

It's possible that this variability allows brands to capture consumer interest through targeted promotions, although it's uncertain how this strategy might evolve as the holiday season progresses. By testing discounts across a broad range, brands may seek to balance the appeal of early discounts with the potential for higher demand closer to BFCM.

Incremental Beauty Discounts: A Controlled Strategy for Holiday Sales

• Average Discount: 20%
• Average Spread (25th - 75th percentile): 18%
• Volatility: Low

In the Beauty Products category, discounting appears to follow a more stable and gradual pattern, with an average discount of 20% and a relatively narrow spread of 18% from the 25th to 75th percentile. This steadier approach, especially when compared to the higher volatility in Apparel, may suggest a cautious ramp-up toward BFCM.

The trend of increasing discounts closer to mid-October could hint at brands slowly building consumer interest without heavily impacting brand perception. This incremental approach might allow beauty brands to manage perceived product value while attracting early holiday wallet share. It's possible that this restrained volatility reflects a longer-term strategy, where brands aim to maintain a consistent promotional pace rather than fluctuating sharply.

Stability in Home & Garden: A Measured Pre-BFCM Discount Approach

• Average Discount: 20%
• Average Spread (25th - 75th percentile): 7%
• Volatility: Low

For Home & Garden products, discounting shows a notably restrained trend, with an average discount of 20% and a very narrow spread of 7% from the 25th to 75th percentile. This limited fluctuation suggests a unified conservative approach, with relatively steady discounts in the lead-up to BFCM. Given that Home & Garden products typically have higher price points, even moderate percentage discounts in this category could have a meaningful impact on overall margins.

This steadiness may indicate that brands in this category are reserving more significant discounting efforts for the peak BFCM period itself. It's possible that these brands are focusing on maintaining higher margins now, positioning themselves for potentially deeper discounts later. Whether this measured approach will resonate with value-driven consumers or be adjusted as BFCM nears will be something to watch.

Anticipating Black Friday: Key Takeaways

As Black Friday and Cyber Monday near, discounting trends across Apparel, Beauty, and Home reveal distinct strategies, reflecting each category’s unique dynamics. These trends show how brands balance discount levels with consumer expectations, product value, and margins. As BFCM approaches, it will be interesting to see if brands hold these strategies or adjust to shifting market conditions.